APPLES AND ORANGES

Do foreclosure and short sale homes (distressed) at Lake of the Pines sell for less than regular homes?

Of course they do.

How much less?  Let’s examine the “distressed homes” market in Lake of the Pines, California for two different periods:

May 19,2010 through May 18, 2011 compared to the period of May 19, 2011 through May 18, 2012.

I selected “average” houses between 1500 and 2500 square feet that sold during these two periods.

                                                     5/19/10 thru 5/18/11           5/19/11 thru 5/18/12        

Number of distressed sales                           26                                                    13

Number of regular sales                                 20                                                   30

Highest distressed sold                             $280,000                                      $325,000

Highest regular sold                                  $435,000                                      $405,000

Lowest distressed sold                                 $165,000                                      $73,000

Lowest regular sold                                    $150,000                                      $150,000

Average distressed sold                              $210,025                                      $184,446

Average regular sold                                   $283,550                                      $275,171

Median distressed sold                               $207,500                                      $169,900

Median regular sold                                    $289,000                                     $272,500

Average distressed list price                       $218,759                                      $196,192

Average regular list price                            $301,409                                    $290,341

%sold price/list price distressed                    96%                                               94%

%sold price/list price regular                         94%                                                95%

Price/square foot listed distressed               $122                                              $107

Price/square foot listed regular                    $157                                              $150

Price/square foot sold distressed                  $117                                               $101

Price/square foot sold regular                       $148                                              $142

Average days on market distressed                 136                                                85

Average days on market regular                      98                                                103

ANALYSIS

Lots of mixed results.

The number of distressed home sales in 2011/2012 (13) was 50% less than it was the previous year in 2010/2011 (26).  What happened to the “flood” of foreclosures?

The number of regular home sales in 2011/2012 (30) was 33% more than it was the previous year in 2010/2011 (20).

In 2010/2011 distressed properties were on the market longer than regular sales; in 2011/2012 distressed properties were on the market shorter than regular sales.  Go figure.

Consistently, across all types of Lake of the Pines Properties, sellers are getting about 95% of their asking price.  But this statistic is deceptive.  The original price (the price at which a home first came on the market) and the asking price (the price at which the home was for sale when an acceptable contract was negotiated) are often different.  Frequently the price has been reduced, sometimes more than once, so that the asking price is much lower than the original price.  When that happens, the %sold price/original price may be much less than 95%.

Distressed properties sell for less money.  How much less?  A lot less.  Distressed markets and regular markets are like two separate realities within the same town.  Using “price/square foot sold” as the basis of comparison, distressed homes sold for 21% less than regular sales in 2010/2011 and for 29% less in 2011/2012.

How did distressed sales fare from 2010/2011 to 2011/2012?  Again, using “price/square foot sold” as the basis of comparison, prices of “average sized” distressed properties declined 14% in 2011/2012.

How did regular sales fare from 2010.2011 to 2011/2012?  Prices of “average sized” regular homes declined slightly in 2011/2012, about 4%.

SUMMARY

Fewer distressed homes sold this year than last year, and for 14% less money.

More regular homes sold this year than last year, but for 4%  less money.