GOLDEN APPLES?

This is the fifth of a five-part analysis of real estate at Lake of the Pines, California.   In this fifth analysis, we’re going  to examine the most expensive group of homes at Lake of the Pines, the “lakefronts.”

We will look first at the lakefronts that sold one year ago (May 23, 2010 through May 22, 2011) as compared to lakefronts that sold during the past 12 months (May 23, 2011 through May 22, 2012).  Then we will look at the lakefronts that are for sale right now, also called the “actives.”

                                                          5/23/10 thru 5/22/11           5/23/11 thru 5/122/12

Number of lakefronts sold                                9                                                   13

Highest price sold                                    $1,095,000                                      $915,000

Lowest price sold                                        $450,000                                      $400,000

Average price sold                                       $736,702                                      $598,576

Median price sold                                        $735,000                                     $625,000

Average  list price                                         $773,944                                    $637,107

%sold price/list price                                       95%                                               94%

Price/square foot listed                                 $258                                              $227

Price/square foot sold                                    $246                                              $212

Average days on market                                  172                                                161

ANALYSIS

The number of lakefront homes sold rose from 9 to 13, or 31%.  The sample, however,  is too small for this increase to be especially meaningful.   Better than a poke in the eye, but don’t get too excited, because . . .

Prices fell off a cliff.

Based on average sold price, prices declined 19%

Based on median sold price, prices declined 15%.

Based on price per square foot, prices declined 14%

No way to mince words, spin it in a positive way, squint at it through rose-colored glasses and make it look better.  The lakefront homes at Lake of the Pines are taking a royal beating at the real estate  marketplace.  No, it’s not that lakefront home prices are being dragged down by foreclosures and short sales.  In the first period, 2010/2011, there was only 1 distressed sale out of 9, and that one sold higher than the other 8  in price per square foot ($285  per square foot vs. the group average of $246 per square foot).  In the second period, there was only 1 distressed sale out of 13, and that property was only slightly below the group average ($202 per square foot vs. $212 per square foot).

No, don’t try to blame the decline on foreclosures and short sales.

Were lakefront homes wildly over-valued and still correcting?

Are buyers still too tight to spend on “luxury” homes?

ACTIVE MARKET, LAKEFRONT HOMES FOR SALE RIGHT NOW (May 22,2012) 

Number of Lakefront homes for sale                   7

Highest price                                                    $1,549,000

Lowest price                                                        $799,000

Average price                                                    $1,076,142

Median price                                                       $998,000

Average days on market                                         235

Average price per square foot                              $312

ANALYSIS

The price per quare foot of the homes on the market today ($312) is almost exactly twice the price per square foot of homes sold in the past 12 months ($161).  Yes, there is 1 home out of the 7 (the most expensive) that is pulling the price per square foot up a bit, but even taking that one out of the sample, the other 6 current actives are way above the average price per square foot of the sold homes.

SUMMARY

Based on price per square foot, lakefront homes at Lake of the Pines declined 14-15% during the past two years, and yet based on price per square foot, current sellers are asking almost twice as much for their homes.  Does this give you some idea why lakefront homes are a tough sell right now?