Let’s dispense with anecdotal examples. Let’s swerve around wishful thinking. Let’s take an honest look at the hard evidence–actual sales of homes at Lake of the Pines, California.
For this analysis, we’ll compare sales data from the Nevada County Association of Realtors for two six-month periods:
(1) August 12, 2011 through February 12, 2012
(2) August 12, 2012 through February 12, 2013
This will give us a year-on-year comparison.
Lake of the Pines is divided into two real estate sub-markets. Lakefront homes and everything else. Lumping lakefronts in with everything else drastically skews the results. For the purpose of this article, I will exclude 10 lakefront homes sold, 8 in the first six-month period, and 2 in the second six-month period.
Aug 12, 2011–Feb 12, 2012 Aug 12, 2012–Feb 12, 2013
Number of non-lakefront homes sold 36 44
Average Days on the Market (DOM) 88 90
Asking Price at time of sale $255,478 $256,277
Asking Price per square foot $135/sq ft $135/sq ft
Actual Sold Price $244,420 $246,425
Sold price per square foot $129/sq ft $130,000
Percent sold price to asking price 95.6% 96.1%
Conclusion. The real estate market at Lake of the Pines, excluding sales of lakefront homes, is statistically unchanged from 201/2012 to 2012/2013. The six-month periods examined are traditionally the “slow season” sales periods (fall and winter). It will be interesting to compare the “fast season” periods (sping and summer) later on in 2013. Based on last year’s flurry of investor purchases of lower-end homes, I predict that the “fast season” data will show a modest year-on-year improvement.
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